Monday, October 12, 2009

Open Nationals Seedings

Here’s my first shot at Open Nationals Seedings:

1. Revolver (NW1) – Revolver is the pretty easy 1 seed. They have to be ahead of Sockeye based on regional results and they are undefeated against Chain (2-0) and Ironside (1-0).

2-4 Ironside (NE1), Chain (S3), Sockeye (NW2) –Sockeye’s seeding depends on how much weight you decide to put on ECC results vs. Labor Day results. At ECC a banged up Sockeye lost to both Chain and Ironside. At Labor Day Sockeye rolled through the competition and as a result have the highest RRI of any team. I think the options for Sockeye are either give a lot of weight to Labor Day and make them the 2 seed overall, or give less weight to Labor Day and make them the 4 seed overall. I can’t think of any reason to put them at 3 in between Chain and Ironside. I’m putting Sockeye at 4, but I can understand 2. That leaves us Chain vs. Ironside. The two teams have had essentially identical seasons. Ironside beat Chain 15-11 at ECC, Chain beat Ironside at Chesapeake 13-8. Ironside has a slightly higher RRI than Chain, but Chain’s victory was at a more recent tournament. It’s close, but I think you have to go with Ironside as the 2 seed based on last year’s nationals results, Ironside eliminated Chain 15-10 in the semi-finals. Also, Ironside is 1 point away (15-14 loss to Revolver in ECC finals) from being the consensus 1 seed. So:

2 Ironside (NE1)
3 Chain (S1)
4 Sockeye (NW2)

5-6 Doublewide (S2) Johnny Bravo (SW1)
Doublewide and Bravo are 1-1 against each other. Both of their games against each other were on the same day at Colorado Cup with Doublewide winning 14-13 in the morning and Bravo winning 13-10 in the finals. If you only look at Colorado Cup it seems that you should go with Bravo 5 and Doublewide 6…but I think Labor Day (the only other tourney both teams attended) results push Doublewide over the top (DW finishes 2nd, Bravo finishes 5th). So:

5 Doublewide (S2)
6 Johnny Bravo (SW1)

7 Jam (NW3) – This seems like the spot for the defending champs (0-1 against DW, 0-2 against Bravo). Truck Stop’s regional victory over Ring helps Jam since Jam is 1-0 against TS and 0-1 against Ring).

8-10 Truck Stop (MA1), GOAT (NE2) Ring (MA2).
This grouping is a little messy with GOAT being 1-1 against both Truck Stop and Ring. Also GOAT’s wins over the two MA teams came earlier in the season than their two losses to the MA teams. So you could definitely make an argument that GOAT should be below both TS and Ring. The problem with going with GOAT at 10 is that it forces all three MA teams into pool A (Pike has to be 16). So, you have to push GOAT ahead of 1 or both of the MA teams. I’m going to push them ahead of Ring but not ahead of Truck Stop. It’s kind of arbitrary, but basically, I’m gonna disregard GOAT’s 1 point win over Truck Stop at the Boston Invite (in June) while still giving them credit for their win over Ring at ECC (in August). So:

8 Truck Stop (MA1)
9 GOAT (NE2)
10 Ring (MA2)

11-15 Bodhi (NE3), Madison (C1), Machine (C2), Madcow (C3), Streetgang (SW2)
This grouping is a huge mess. Bodhi and Streetgang have mixed results against the Central teams. Streetgang (1-0 against Madison, but 0-1 against Machine). Bodhi (2-0 against Madison, 0-1 against Machine, and 1-1 against Madcow). I’m not really sure the best way to handle this, but given the confusing results I think one strategy is to keep the Central teams out of the same pools (since we “know” the order of the central teams based on regionals) and let the games on Thursday sort out the best way to order the central teams in relation to the non-central teams. Bodhi is definitely the team that gets hosed the most doing it this way since we end up valuing Bodhi’s loss to Machine more than Bodhi’s 2 wins against Madison. If someone has a better plan for this grouping I’d love to hear it. So I’m gonna go with

11 Madison
12 Machine
13 Bodhi
14 Streetgang
15 Madcow

16 Pike – has no results against nationals teams this year, but has losses to South 6, NE8, NE9…as well as 2 losses to MA4 at regionals.

To sum up:
1. Revolver
2. Ironside
3 Chain
4 Sockeye
5 Doublewide
6 Johnny Bravo
7 Jam
8 Truck Stop
9 GOAT
10 Ring of Fire
11 Madison
12 Machine
13 Bodhi
14 Streetgang
15 Madcow
16 Pike

Which gives us the following pools:

A
Revolver
Truck Stop
GOAT
Pike

B
Ironside
Jam
Ring
Madcow

C
Chain
Johnny Bravo
Madison
Streetgang

D
Sockeye
Doublewide
Machine
Bodhi

Let me know what you think,

aj

9 comments:

Martin said...

You put Sockeye up their twice. It should read:

A
Revolver
Truckstop
GOAT
Pike

AJ said...

yep. fixed now.

Bravo #17 said...

I think that's pretty close to what it will be. I might put Chain above Ironside b/c Chain has the later win and with a larger margin of victory. Ironside does have the early win and a higher appearance at nationals last year. But Chain won a major tournament and Ironside has no big tournament wins (so far).

I'd also probably place Bravo above Doublewide. Pretty equal teams, but Bravo has the edge in margin of victory, has a tournament win and last year's tournament results in Bravo's favor. Bravo did lose badly to SubZero whereas Doublewide had a universe point victory over SubZero.

GOAT ahead of Truck but doesn't really matter. Agree with everything else. So my pool predictions would be:

A: Revolver, GOAT, Truck Stop, Pike

B: Chain, JAM, Ring, Madcow

C: Ironside, Doublewide, Madison, Streetgang

D: Sockeye, Bravo, Machine, Bodhi

ryan said...

Although GOAT lost to TS at Chesapeake, they finished higher than them in the final standings. Also, the loss was somewhat insiginificant if you look at the bracket. Win or lose that game and their road in the elimination bracket is about the same. For that, I would put them ahead of TS and then Ring by default.

Martin said...

Reading stuff it feels like the seeding is a formality more than anything else, and we can go ahead and pencil the 1 seeds in for quarters. I started looking at the numbers from the past years and I found some interesting things (since 2002)

All 4 top seeds have held place on Thursday only twice (02 and 05).

Only three times has a 3 seed in a pool beaten a 1 seed (Pike over Sockeye in 04, Everybody over Furious in 07, and Doublewide over Sockeye in 08).

There have been 6 instances where a team seeded 3rd or 4th in a pool has advanced to the power pools. Pike in 04, Metal and Potomac in 05, and Chain in 06, 07 and 08.

I guess the question is, how important is it to correctly figure out spots 5-10?

Patrick Mooney said...

these make sense to me....

A: Revolver, GOAT, Truck Stop, Pike

B: Chain, JAM, Ring, Madcow

C: Ironside, Doublewide, Madison, Streetgang

D: Sockeye, Bravo, Machine, Bodhi

the funny thing is that the highest ranked team in the Central region would be the 11th seed. something seems kind of wrong with them getting a strength bid

Vector said...

SubZero advanced to power pools in 2001 despite being seeded 4th in their pool. We went 3-0 on Thursday. That's prior to 2002, so it doesn't make your comment false.

Martin said...

Whew! I'm glad I put my "after 2002" comment on there. Also, Revolver has more losses than anyone else in the top 4 (5 total to: PoNY, GoAT, Ring, DW and Sockeye). Only one loss to another top 4 team and one loss to a non-qualifier (sorry Ben).

On the flip side of that all 4 of Sockeye's losses are to top 4 teams. Ironside has one loss to GoAT and Chain has a loss to Rhino. Sockeye has the 'best' losses, but can't be #1 because of regionals.

Should Sockeye be the #2? Seems so, especially if we are weighting the latter tournaments more (which AJ is doing by putting emphasis on Chesapeake rather than ECC).

Patrick Mooney said...

Looks like you guys got it pretty close

Seeds were posted today

Open Division
Seeds
1. Revolver (Bay Area, Calif.)
2. Chain Lightning (Atlanta)
3. Ironside (Boston)
4. Sockeye (Seattle)
5. Johnny Bravo (Denver)
6. Doublewide (Austin, Texas)
7. Jam* (San Francisco)
8. GOAT (Toronto, Ontario)
9. Truck Stop (Washington D.C./Baltimore)
10. Ring of Fire (Raleigh/Durham, N.C.)
11. Bodhi (Amherst, Mass.)
12. Madison Club (Madison, Wis.)
13. Machine (Chicago)
14. Streetgang (San Diego)
15. Madcow (Columbus, Ohio)
16. Pike (Philadelphia)

Pool A
Revolver, GOAT, Truck Stop, Pike
Pool B
Chain Lightning, Jam, Ring of Fire, Madcow
Pool C
Ironside, Doublewide, Bodhi, Streetgang
Pool D
Sockeye, Johnny Bravo, Madison Club, Machine